بررسی نقش آستانه¬ای تحریم بر اثرگذاری درآمدهای نفتی بر نقدینگی در ایران: شواهدی جدید از الگوی TSVAR

Investigating the threshold role of sanctions on the effect of oil revenues on liquidity in Iran: new evidence from the TSVAR model

Soheil Roudari, Amirmansour Tehranchian, Seyed Hadi Arabi and OmidAli Adeli

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: In the years after the Islamic Revolution of Iran, for various reasons, Iran's economy has always been under the economic sanctions of the United States, the United Nations, or the European Union, sometimes by the United States alone, and in some periods by all three. In the present research, the impact of positive and negative shocks on the sanctions index through two paths of impact on the budget deficit and also the impact on the exchange rate and inflation on liquidity in the period of 1979-2020 has been investigated using the Threshold Structural Vector Autoregressive model (TSVAR). According to the research results, the threshold of sanctions growth through the path of exchange rate and inflation was 5.162 % and through the government budget deficit channel was 3.057%, which shows that the threshold of sanction growth in the exchange rate channel and inflation is greater. Also, the difference in the country's liquidity response to oil revenues is related to the sanctions threshold. Based on this, and to reduce the effects of exogenous oil shocks on liquidity, the stabilizing role of the National Development Fund should be considered along with the management of inflationary expectations. Because in such a situation, the foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank will also increase. It can prevent the high growth of the exchange rate and inflation in the conditions of the tightening of sanctions through the ability to supply higher currency, which will prevent the further growth of liquidity in the country.

Keywords: Sanctions; Budget Deficit; Exchange rate; Oil Revenues; TSVAR Model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C24 F31 F51 G29 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-08-09, Revised 2023-02-07
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Published in Quarterly Energy Economics Review 76.19(2023): pp. 1-27

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