پیش بینی نحوه اثرگذاری عوامل مؤثر بر رشد اقتصادی ایران با رویکرد مدل میانگین گیری پویا

Predicting the effect of factors affecting the economic growth of Iran with the approach of dynamic averaging models

Sanaz Rahimi Kahkashi, OmidAli Adeli, Mohammad Hassan Maleki and Soheil Roudari

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: One of the most important goals of economic policymakers in every country is to achieve high economic growth. For this purpose, this study aims to identify the most important variables affecting Iran's economic growth in the period of 1360 - 1400 using the dynamic averaging model. The results showed that in Iran's economy, the variables of current government expenditures, tax revenues, income inequality, household consumption expenditures, and domestic investment are the most important variables affecting economic growth. Also, the results showed that the manner and probability of these variables influencing economic growth over time are not constant and are subject to exogenous impulses such as revolution, war, oil price shocks, applied economic policies, structural changes, and sanctions.

Keywords: Economic Growth; Current Government Expenditures; Tax Revenues; TVP-DMA Model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E37 O47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-11-19, Revised 2023-05-23
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Published in Journal of Econometric Modelling 2.8(2023): pp. 35-67

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:127009

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