تاثیر رشد قیمت نفت بر کارایی تسهیلات اعطایی به بخش صنعت: کاربردی از الگوهای BDEA و STR

The effect of oil price growth on the efficiency of facilities granted to the industrial sector: Application of BDEA and STR Models

Soheil Roudari

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: The main part of business financing in the country is provided by the banking network, which can be effective in creating employment and improving the added value of various sectors of the economy, especially the industrial sector. Given the dependence of the country's economy on oil revenues, changes in oil prices can affect the efficiency of the banking network in the field of facilities granted to the industrial sector by affecting the supply and demand sectors of the economy. Based on this, in the present study, first, by using the bootstrap data envelopment analysis model, the efficiency of the facilities granted to the country's industry sector in the study period (2014: 4-1383: 1) has been estimated and then by using the smooth transition regression examines the main research model. The results show that the increase in oil prices has a positive and significant effect and the increase in budget deficit and exchange rate has a negative and significant effect on the efficiency of facilities granted to the industrial sector in the first regime and in the second regime (reduction of more than -8% of oil prices). The variables effect is the opposite of the first regime, and in both regimes economic growth has not had a significant effect on the efficiency of facilities granted to the industrial sector. In contrast, the relationship between oil price, exchange rate, budget deficit with efficiency of facilities granted to the industrial sector are like an inverted U (U). Accordingly, if the oil revenues dependence does not decrease, a change in the growth of oil prices (increase or decrease more than the threshold) will lead to an asymmetric effect on the efficiency of facilities granted to the industrial sector in the country and Planning the amount of the facilities grant to various sectors is problematic, and given the bank-centric nature of business financing in the country, it can increase the liquidity constraint of businesses, especially those in the industrial sector.

Keywords: Oil Price; Budget Deficit; Exchange Rate; Smooth Transition Regression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 E20 E51 F31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-03-14
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