Identifying the Median Grade-Tonnage Curve from the Global Database of VMS Copper Mining Projects

Peter Bell

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This paper presents a statistical analysis of the global database of Volcanogenic Massive Sulphide (VMS) mineral deposits. The paper shows the joint and partial probability distributions for copper equivalent grade and total tonnage based on current metals prices for copper, zinc, lead, and gold. The article develops a new method using the joint distribution to identify the set of quantile values for grade and tonnage that have approximately 50% probability; this set of quantile values represents the median grade-tonnage curve for VMS deposits around the world. The article also shows how to analyze individual projects in comparison with the global database. For example, the size of the Shamlugskoe mine in Armenia is ranked according to the global database. For another example, a model of the exploration project called Mount Sicker is presented and compared to nearby projects that are in the global database.

Keywords: Natural Resources; Mining; Copper; Zinc; Volcanogenic Massive Sulphide; Metals Grade; Deposit Tonnage; Grade-Tonnage Curve; Probability Distribution; Median Path; Statistical Analysis; Simulation; Quantile (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: A1 A19 B5 B59 C0 C02 C1 C14 C15 C18 C4 C40 C6 C63 C69 C8 C81 D2 D8 D81 G1 G17 G3 G31 H2 H25 K2 K23 L2 L5 L7 L72 Q3 Q32 Q33 Q5 Y1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-01-01
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