Futures Thinking and Strategic Foresight in Local Governance: Institutional and Local Government Leadership Challenges and Policy Options in Zamboanga Peninsula (Region IX), Philippines

Cedrick Zabala, Armand Lee, Aldrin Valerio, Alex Marcos, Lesley Ann Atilano, Ivan Eric Salvador and Frede Moreno

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Local governments face compound uncertainty from demographic change, climate risk, fiscal pressure, and security threats. Futures thinking and strategic foresight offer governance tools that help public institutions anticipate disruption and guide long-term policy choice. This article examines the institutional adoption of futures thinking and strategic foresight within local governments in the Zamboanga Peninsula (Region IX), Philippines. The study assesses leadership capacity, organizational readiness, planning practice, and intergovernmental coordination across provinces and cities in the region. The analysis uses official administrative data, development plans, budget records, and key informant evidence from provincial and city governments. Findings show that Region IX local governments rely on compliance-driven planning cycles, short-term investment programming, and fragmented data systems. Executive leadership turnover, limited technical staff, and weak foresight mandates constrain institutional learning. Local governments align plans with national frameworks yet lack anticipatory governance tools that support scenario building, horizon scanning, and adaptive policy design. The article presents a data-driven institutional matrix that maps foresight capacity across governance functions. Policy options focus on leadership development, statutory integration of foresight in local planning, regional knowledge platforms, and incentives within intergovernmental fiscal systems. The study contributes empirical evidence to local governance scholarship by linking futures thinking to leadership practice in a developing country context.

Keywords: Local governance; strategic foresight; futures thinking; leadership capacity; regional planning; Philippines; Zamboanga Peninsula (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: A1 A10 A12 A13 A19 I00 I2 I20 I28 I29 I31 I38 I39 M0 M1 M10 M12 M14 M19 M5 M50 M53 M54 M59 Z0 Z1 Z10 Z13 Z18 Z19 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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