Quantifying data revisions using real-time data in South Africa

Ayrton Griffin-Ellis, Aidan J. Horn and Daan Steenkamp

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Non-random revisions in macroeconomic statistics has important implications for forecasting and risk management and well as policy making. This policy paper evaluates the magnitude and historical dynamics of South African macroeconomic data revisions using a detailed true real-time dataset. We show that there is a lot of uncertainty around macroeconomic data in South Africa. In the case of GDP, estimates have tended to be revised upwards, by about 0.4 percentage point, on average. Investment, on the other hand, experienced larger revisions that GDP, with revisions tending to be negative. We show that the Reserve Bank's business cycle indicators have experienced the largest revisions of the series considered, raising concerns over their usefulness for nowcasting economic growth.

Keywords: real-time data; vintages; data revisions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C81 E01 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-01-23
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:127825

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