Intelligence artificielle et transformation de la relation croissance –emploi: une relecture empirique de la loi d’okun

Artificial Intelligence and the transformation of the growth–employment nexus: an empirical reappraisal of okun’s law

Christ Kahambwe, Christian Aidini and Alexandre E.Loemba

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This paper examines the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) and technological progress on the relationship between economic growth and unemployment, traditionally described by Okun’s law. Using panel data for 11 developed countries over the period 2000–2024, the analysis relies on fixed-effects models and dynamic specifications estimated through the System Generalized Method of Moments (System-GMM). Technological intensity is proxied by an information and communication technology (ICT) index, and an interaction term is introduced to assess its moderating role in the growth–employment relationship. The results confirm the short-run validity of Okun’s law, as economic growth exerts a negative and statistically significant effect on changes in unemployment. However, technological intensity has a positive direct effect on unemployment and weakens the ability of growth to reduce unemployment, suggesting adjustment costs related to automation. Overall, the findings point to a structural transformation of the growth–employment nexus and highlight the need for active policies in skills development and labor market adjustment to ensure more inclusive growth.

Keywords: Artificial intelligence; economic growth; unemployment; Okun’s law; automation. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C23 C53 E24 O33 O47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-01-31, Revised 2026
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