Income Growth In Morocco: An Analysis of Income Growth Following an ARFIMA Model

Houssam Boughabi

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This paper analyzes the dynamic interactions between income growth, inflation, and unemployment in Morocco over the period 1990–2025. Income growth is modeled as a stochastic process exhibiting both short-term persistence and potential long-memory effects, captured via an ARFIMA(p, d, q) specification. The estimated income growth series is then used to investigate its influence on inflation and unemployment, linking income shocks to macro-labor outcomes within a Phillips–Okun framework. By com- bining long-memory income dynamics with empirical macro-labor modeling, the study provides new insights into how persistent fluctuations in income growth shape price adjustments and labor market responses. These findings offer both theoretical and policy-relevant implications for emerging economies experiencing cyclical or structural growth variations.

Keywords: Inflation; Unemployment; Income dynamics; Volatility; ARFIMA; GARCH (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 E24 E31 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-02-13
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara and nep-ets
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:128041

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