La stabilisation monétaire en république démocratique du Congo: personnalité des décideurs et chances de succès

Monetary stabilization in the Democratic Republic of Congo: the personality of decision-Makers and the Chances of Success

Esdras E. Auga and Augustin K. Cilengi

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This study examines monetary stabilization in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) by highlighting the role of policymakers’ personality traits in shaping the likelihood of stabilization success over the period 1995–2024. While conventional monetary theories primarily attribute price stability to the control of monetary aggregates, this research argues that policymakers’ behavioral characteristics constitute a key determinant of policy effectiveness. The analysis focuses on integrity as a measurable dimension of personality, proxied by the ratio of monetary financing of the Treasury to fiscal revenues. Using annual data from the Central Bank of Congo and applying the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, the results confirm the existence of a long-run relationship among inflation, money supply growth, integrity, and external balance variables. Monetary expansion significantly affects inflation in both the short and long run. However, the inflationary impact of money growth is conditional on the degree of integrity embodied by policymakers. Higher institutional discipline reduces inflationary transmission and increases the probability of successful stabilization. These findings suggest that sustainable price stability depends not only on technical monetary instruments but also on governance quality and policymaker credibility.

Keywords: Monetary stabilization; Policymaker personality; Integrity; Inflation; Central bank credibility. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E52 E58 H63 O55 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-03-03
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