Análisis macroeconómico e institucional del riesgo de crédito en el sector agrícola de los países en desarrollo

Credit risk in the agricultural sector: an agricultural economics analysis using panel data

Juan Camilo Cortes Quiñonez and Stefania Cielo Cabezas

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Access to credit is a key driver of agricultural sector development in emerging economies; however, this process entails significant risks for financial institutions. This study examines credit risk in the agricultural sector from a macroeconomic and institutional perspective. A fixed-effects panel data model is employed for the period 2010–2022, using data from six selected countries: Colombia, Mexico, India, the Philippines, South Africa, and Romania. The dependent variable is the ratio of non-performing loans, used as a proxy for credit risk, while the independent variables include macroeconomic indicators, interest rates, institutional quality, and sector-specific agricultural variables. The results indicate that the real interest rate and agriculture's value added as a percentage of GDP are significant positive determinants of credit risk. Additionally, the analysis finds that higher government effectiveness is associated with an increase in the share of non-performing loans, potentially reflecting improved financial reporting and supervision practices. The study highlights the complex interplay between institutional environment, macroeconomic dynamics, and credit risk in the agricultural sector.

Keywords: Credit Risk; Agricultural Sector; Agricultural Economics; Panel Data. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C23 G19 O13 O40 Q14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr and nep-fdg
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