The i-Criterion Dilemma: A Regulatory Impact Assessment of Market Displacement, Fiscal Contraction, and Criminological Risk in Amsterdam

Joe Spencer

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This study assesses enforcing a cannabis coffeeshop tourist ban (the i-criterium) in Amsterdam’s projected 2026 economy. Using a Regulatory Impact Assessment approach, it highlights a notable shortfall in what the authors term “Fiscal Reciprocity”: non-resident tourists would face a combined tax burden of 33.5% (21% VAT plus 12.5% municipal tourist tax) while remaining excluded from the protections offered by a retail sector that is 98.4% Bibob-compliant. Econometric estimates, applying a substitution rate of σ = 0.3, predict an overall economic decline of €488 million and an associated €55 million displacement into unregulated street markets labeled here as “Criminal Capture.” The paper recommends adopting a “De‑Risking Strategy” — a 24‑month pause in new regulatory measures to reassess current fiscal disincentives before moving forward with prohibitionist enforcement.

Keywords: i-criterium; Amsterdam; Cannabis Policy; Fiscal Reciprocity; Econometric Modeling; Criminological Forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H2 K2 K42 L83 R58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-03-12
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:128840

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