Measuring Potential Output in a Resource-Dependent Developing Economy: The Case of Mauritania

Yahya Ly

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This study offers an updated and contextualized estimation of Mauritania’s potential GDP for the period 2014-2024, using four complementary approaches : linear trend, band-pass filter, and production function. The findings indicate a steady increase in potential output, with annual growth rates ranging from 3.2% to 3.7%, which is comparatively lower than the averages observed in Sub Saharan Africa (4% - 6%) or other low-income countries (5% - 7%). This moderate potential growth reflects several structural limitations, including a strong dependence on the extractive sector, gaps in human capital, infrastructure deficits, and institutional fragilities. These findings carry significant implications for economic policy : the need to incorporate output gap analysis into monetary policy, prioritize investment in human capital and productive infrastructure, and accelerate economic diversification. Future research could enrich these results by integrating institutional variables, conducting a sectoral breakdown of potential output, and analyzing the effects of energy transition and regional integration on Mauritania’s long-term growth prospects.

Keywords: Measuring; Potential; Output; in; a; Resource-Dependent; Developing; Economy; :; The; Case; of; Mauritania (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: A10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026, Revised 2026
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/129091/1/MPRA_paper_129091.pdf original version (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:129091

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Joachim Winter ().