Hétérogénéité structurelle et viabilité d'une sortie monétaire des pays de l'AES de l'UEMOA: une analyse en données de panel (2006-2024)

Structural heterogeneity and the viability of a monetary exit of the AES countries from WAEMU: a panel data analysis (2006-2024)

Donatien Dayoro

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This study examines the effect of structural heterogeneity on the macroeconomic fundamentals of West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries, with particular focus on the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) — Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Over the period 2006-2024, we employ a panel data econometric framework articulated around five alternative estimators: Driscoll-Kraay panel-corrected standard errors (PCSE-DK), the Pooled Mean Group ARDL estimator (PMG-ARDL) of Pesaran-Shin-Smith, the Common Correlated Effects Mean Group (CCE-MG) estimator of Pesaran, the Blundell-Bond System GMM, and the Augmented Mean Group (AMG) of Eberhardt-Bond. Results reveal that the structural divergence index — combining agricultural share, extractive share, and conflict intensity — significantly and negatively affects real GDP growth and foreign direct investment, increases inflation, and deteriorates the current account balance. Sectoral estimations indicate non-linear inverted-U relationships for inflation and U-shaped for growth, suggesting threshold effects. Westerlund (2007) tests confirm a cointegrating long-run relationship. These findings provide a rigorous framework for assessing the preconditions for a potential AES monetary exit. Policy implications suggest that policymakers should prioritize addressing structural vulnerabilities (security, diversification, governance) before or jointly with any monetary transition, in order to minimize adjustment costs.

Keywords: Alliance of Sahel States; WAEMU; monetary exit; structural divergence; panel data; PMG-ARDL; CCE-MG; System GMM; AMG (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C20 C21 C23 E42 F33 F45 O55 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-05-16
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/129906/1/MPRA_paper_129906.pdf original version (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:129906

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Joachim Winter ().