Real Exchange Rate and Commodity Prices in a Neoclassical Model

Carmen Reinhart

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This paper represents a neoclassical model that explains the observed empirical relationship between government spending and world commodity supplies and the real exchange rate and real commodity prices. It is shown that fiscal expansion and increasing world commodity supplies simultaneously lead to an appreciation of the real exchange rate and a decline in relative commodity prices. The structural model is estimated and its forecasting performance is compared to a variety of models. We find that theory and structure help in predicting commodity prices, although not the exchange rate, and that predictive ability increases as the forecast horizon is lengthened.

Keywords: commodity price; fiscal policy; developing countries; real exchange rate (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1988-06-30
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

Downloads: (external link)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13188/1/MPRA_paper_13188.pdf original version (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:13188

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Joachim Winter ().