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The anti-Phillips curve

Ivan Kitov ()

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: There is no Phillips curve in the United States, i.e. unemployment does not drive inflation at any time horizon. There is a statistically robust anti-Phillips curve - inflation leads unemployment by 10 quarters. Apparently, the anti-Phillips curve would be the conventional one, if the time would flow in the opposite direction. Several tests for cointegration do not reject the hypothesis that there exist a long-term equilibrium relation between inflation and unemployment in the US. The cointegrating relation between inflation and unemployment is not the proof of causality, however, and both variables are driven by the same external force. Also presented are some statistical evidences that there exist conventional Phillips curves in Germany and France, but there is no causality link between unemployment and inflation as well.

Keywords: the Phillips curve; inflation; unemployment; causality (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E24 E31 E58 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-lab and nep-mac
Date: 2009-02-26
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