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Unemployment and inflation in Western Europe: solution by the boundary element method

Ivan Kitov () and Oleg Kitov

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Using an analog of the boundary element method in engineering and science, we analyze and model unemployment rate in Austria, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United States as a function of inflation and the change in labor force. Originally, the model linking unemployment to inflation and labor force was developed and successfully tested for Austria, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, and the United States. Autoregressive properties of neither of these variables are used to predict their evolution. In this sense, the model is a self-consistent and completely deterministic one without any stochastic component (external shocks) except that associated with measurement errors and changes in measurement units. Nevertheless, the model explains between ~65% and ~95% of the variability in unemployment and inflation. For Italy, the rate of unemployment is predicted at a time horizon of nine (!) years with pseudo out-of-sample root-mean-square forecasting error of 0.55% for the period between 1973 and 2006. One can expect that the unemployment will be growing since 2008 and will reach ~11.4% [±0.6 %] near 2012. After 2012, unemployment in Italy will start to descend.

Keywords: unemployment; inflation; labor force; boundary integral method; prediction; Western Europe (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E24 J21 J64 J11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-for, nep-lab and nep-mac
Date: 2009-03-29
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