Comparing forecasts of Latvia's GDP using simple seasonal ARIMA models and direct versus indirect approach

Ginters Buss

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This paper contributes to the literature by comparing predictive accuracy of one-period real-time simple seasonal ARIMA forecasts of Latvia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as well as by comparing a direct forecast of Latvia's GDP versus three kinds of indirect forecasts. Four main results are as follows. Direct forecast of Latvia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) seems to yield better precision than an indirect one. AR(1) model tends to give more precise forecasts than the benchmark moving-average models. An extra regular differencing appears to help better forecast Latvia's GDP in an economic downturn. Finally, only AR(1) gives forecasts with better precision compared to a naive Random Walk model.

Keywords: real-time forecasting; seasonal ARIMA; Direct versus indirect forecasting; Latvia's GDP (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C13 C15 C22 C53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009-08-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/16684/2/MPRA_paper_16684.pdf original version (application/pdf)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/16825/1/MPRA_paper_16825.pdf revised version (application/pdf)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/16832/2/MPRA_paper_16832.pdf revised version (application/pdf)

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