Bubbles and contagion in English house prices

John Fry

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Using methods originating from statistical physics we model bubbles in English house prices. It is found that there was a nationwide housing bubble 2002-2007. Typically prices were 30-40% over-valued and fell around 20%. London is atypical in that the level of over-pricing was lower, only around 20%, and experienced a drop in prices of only around 15%. There is some suggestion of contagious effects, with the bubble in London affecting prices in Yorkshire and the North.

Keywords: financial crashes; super-exponential growth; illusion of certainty; contagion; housing-bubble; Enlish house prices (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C0 C1 C53 R11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ure
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:17687

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