Volatility Indexes seem to point to the Past

Gerhard Schroeder ()

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: In theory, by trading options, market participants asses and set future volatilities that can be identified using the Black-Scholes-formula in reverse. In reality, as regression analysis suggests, it is historical market data which instead are used to determine future values. Further analysis shows that historical volatilities are insufficient predictors. Yet this questionable practice is considered by international accounting standards (IAS/IFRS) to allow "historical data and implied volatilities" for "reasonable estimations". In a kind of short-circuit, historical volatilities are introduced into option trading and returned as implied volatilities. In reality, both differ significantly from future values. Comparing the volatility of the past nine weeks with that of the following nine weeks, estimation error ranges from four to over ten percentage points. (No paper found in the net challenging the implied hypothesis of IAS 39/AG82(f))

Keywords: Volatility; Prediction; EU Accounting Standards; IAS; Correlation; GARCH; Derivatives (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: B23 C1 E44 F37 H83 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009-10-20
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-fmk
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https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/18025/1/MPRA_paper_18025.pdf original version (application/pdf)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/18400/1/MPRA_paper_18400.pdf revised version (application/pdf)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/24913/1/MPRA_paper_24913.pdf revised version (application/pdf)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:18025

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