A Note on the Observed Downward Bias in Real-Time Estimates of Payroll Jobs Growth in Early Expansions

John Kitchen ()

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This paper examines the relative reliability of alternative measures of employment around business cycle turning points, with particular focus on the behavior of the series at the critical business cycle phase of early expansion phase following a recession. Historical evidence shows that the initial “real time” changes in household employment have provided information for subsequent revisions to the estimates of changes in payroll employment.

Keywords: employment; payroll jobs; surveys (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E24 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2003-08
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:21070

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