 De riesgo y pánico: una analítica de volatilidad y crecimiento 1960-2006About risk and panic, an overview of volatility and growth 1960-2006Daniel Hernan Vedia Jerez MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Abstract: It has long been believed that commodity price variability causes problems for primary producing and dependent countries. This paper tests the effects of price uncertainty (volatility) on economic growth. The model is constructed using a yearly panel data for the ten biggest countries in South America. The results show that output per worker varies enormously across countries, even within the region. Our analysis shows that exogenous shocks continue having a significant negative effect on growth on developing countries. Despite volatility series are not constant through time, we found a homogenous negative effect within the region, but it is heterogeneous when we apply a causality test. The effect is commonly observed in economic time series and it shows that growth rates are significantly reduced by large discrete negative commodity price shocks. Our analysis documented that the impact on productivity (output per worker) is driven through capital formation and foreign investment, as well as, by differences in what we call ‘social infrastructure’ (i.e. institutions and government policies). Keywords: Volatility; terms of trade; Latin America (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:21577 Access Statistics for this paper More papers in MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC. |
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