Analyse et mesure de l'incertitude en prevision d'un modele econometrique. Application au modele mini-DMS
Analysis and measurement of forecast uncertainty in an econometric model. Application to mini-DMS model
Carlo Bianchi,
Jean-Louis Brillet and
Giorgio Calzolari
MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany
Abstract:
This article describes the application to an operational medium-size econometric model, mini-DMS, of methods associating, to deterministic forecasts, a measure of the uncertainty due to the stochastic nature of behavioural equations. After having described the theoretical and practical foundations of the methods, we shal l analyze sequentially the deterministic bias, the uncertainty (standard error) of forecasts and of policy instruments, trying to look at the information from the point of view of the policy maker.
Keywords: Mini-DMS model of France; Stochastic simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C30 C52 C53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1984, Revised 1984
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)
Published in Annales de l'INSEE 54 (1984): pp. 31-62
Downloads: (external link)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/22565/1/MPRA_paper_22565.pdf original version (application/pdf)
Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:22565
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Joachim Winter ().