The Stability of Export-led Growth Hypothesis: Evidence from Asia's Four Little Dragons

Chor Foon Tang and Yew Wah Lai

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: The objective of this study is to re-investigate the export-led growth hypothesis for Asia’s Four Little Dragons using cointegration and rolling causality analyses. Employing both bivariate (exports and GDP) and trivariate (exports, GDP and exchange rate) models, the study finds that exports and GDP are cointegrated for all the four economies, implying that there is a long run relationship between the variables. However, the MWALD causality test results differ between the bivariate and trivariate models. The export-led growth hypothesis is valid only for the case of Hong Kong and Singapore in the bivariate model but valid for all four economies in the trivariate model. Furthermore, the rolling regression-based MWALD test shows that export-led growth in each of the four economies is not stable over their respective period of analysis.

Keywords: Asia’s Four Little Dragons; Export-led growth; Rolling MWALD test (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 F43 O11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-fdg, nep-int and nep-sea
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/52195/8/MPRA_paper_52195.pdf revised version (application/pdf)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:27962

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