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Trade sustainability impact assessment (SIA) on the comprehensive economic and trade agreement (CETA) between the EU and Canada: Final report

Colin Kirkpatrick, Selim Raihan (), Adam Bleser, Dan Prud'homme, Karel Mayrand, Jean Frederic Morin, Hector Pollitt, Leonith Hinojosa and Michael Williams

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Commissioned by the European Commission, the Final Report for the EU-Canada Sustainability Impact Assessment (SIA) on the EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) provides a comprehensive assessment of the potential impacts of trade liberalisation under CETA. The analysis assesses the economic, social and environmental impacts in Canada and the European Union in three main sectors, sixteen sub-sectors and across seven cross-cutting issues. It predicts a number of macro-economic and sector-specific impacts. The macro analysis suggests the EU may see increases in real GDP of 0.02-0.03% in the long-term from CETA, whereas Canada may see increases of 0.18-0.36%. The Investment section of the report suggests these numbers could be higher when factoring in investment increases. At the sectoral level, the study predicts the greatest gains in output and trade to be stimulated by services liberalisation and by the removal of tariffs applied on sensitive agricultural products. It also suggests CETA could have a positive social impact if it includes provisions on the ILO’s Core Labour Standards and Decent Work Agenda. The study also details a variety of impacts in various “cross-cutting” components of CETA. It finds CETA would stimulate investment in Canada, and to a lesser extent in the EU; and finds costs outweigh the benefits of including controversial NAFTA-style investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) provisions in CETA. It predicts potentially imbalanced benefits from a government procurement (GP) chapter. The study assumes CETA will lead to an upward harmonisation in intellectual property rights (IPR) regulations, particularly in Canada, which will have a number of effects. It predicts some notable impacts in terms of competition policy, as well as trade facilitation, free circulation of goods and labour mobility.

Keywords: EU-Canada Sustainability Impact Assessment; SIA; EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement; Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement; CETA; government procurement; investor-state provisions; ISDS; competition policy; Dan Prud'homme; trade impact assessment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: B41 C01 D58 F13 F14 F15 F16 F17 F18 F19 H41 H42 H57 H70 H82 K0 K11 K21 K33 L62 L67 L69 L8 O24 O34 O51 O52 P48 Q17 Q58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011-06
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