Analysis and measurement of the uncertainty in Mini-Dms model for the French economy

Carlo Bianchi, Jean-Louis Brillet and Giorgio Calzolari

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: It is purpose of this paper to evidence, in the behaviour of the Mini-DMS model for the French economy, some stochastic properties which may confirm, strengthen or sometimes contradict the results obtained from the standard simulation analysis, which is purely deterministic. In particular, the model's capabllities in forecasting, in economic policy experiments, and the model's dynamic behaviour will be faced by regarding forecasts, multipliers and cbaracteristic roots as point estimates and associating with them a measure of dispersion, like a standard error.

Keywords: Macroeconometric model; French economy; stochastic simulation; dynamic properties; forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C3 C63 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1983-08-29
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