The Trough Deepens

Thomas Fullerton () and Molina, Angel L.,

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: As the third quarter of 2009 comes to a close, the Mexican economy remains severely battered. The latest INEGI data indicate that the second quarter of 2009 brought with it an annual GDP decrease, in real terms, of nearly 10.3 percent. The current consensus outlook calls for the light at the end of the tunnel to appear in 2010. In spite of this austere outlook, the financial system in Mexico has fared better than it did in prior recessions and the economy seems poised for growth once exports recover. The consensus outlook for real gross domestic product (GDP) calls for a noticeably sharp decline in 2009 of 7.1 percent. Relative to the consensus from last quarter, that represents a sharp downward revision. Individual panelist forecasts range from a drop of 6.5 percent to a steeper decline of 8.2 percent. An important source of the more pessimistic outlook is private consumption. Compared with the previous quarter, Mexican consumers are expected to reduce purchases by 6.9 percent, more than double the rate of decline expected three months ago.

Keywords: Mexico; Macroeconomic Forecast; Consensus Survey (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: M21 O54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009-09-16, Revised 2009-09-22
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Published in Mexico Consensus Economic Outlook 3.12(2009): pp. 2-4

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:30290

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