 Light at the End of Tunnel?Thomas Fullerton () and Molina, Angel L., MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Abstract: For 2009 as a whole, this quarter’s consensus outlook anticipates a steep decline of 6.9 percent in real gross domestic product (GDP). This outlook for inflation-adjusted GDP is not surprising given the panelists expectations for private consumption, as consumers are expected to reduce expenditures by 6.5 percent this year alone. Projections for the government stimulus package have declined substantially, however, with government consumption growth expected to slow to less than 1 percent. Diminished confidence in the Mexican business sector is still expected to cause total fixed investment to shrink at double digit rates. Given the lingering effects of the global economic downturn, the panelists also expect imports and exports to display steep contractions in excess of 11 and 22 percent, respectively. The 2009 consensus figure calls for consumer price increase in excess of 4 percent. Against this backdrop, the panelists expect a 2009 average exchange rate of 13.42 pesos per dollar. The consensus outlook for the 2009 yield on 28-day Treasury Certificates (CETES) holds steady at 5.5 percent, again, this quarter. Keywords: Mexico; Macroeconomic Outlook; Consensus Survey (search for similar items in EconPapers) Published in Mexico Consensus Economic Forecast 4.12(2009): pp. 2-4 Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:30407 Access Statistics for this paper More papers in MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC. |
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