“Modelo Dinámico para Análisis y Pronóstico del Producto Interno Bruto”: Un Enfoque Fiscal Aplicando un Modelo SVAR

Dynamic Model for Analysis and Forecast of Gross Domestic Product': A Fiscal Approach Applying A Model SVAR

Paul A. Carrillo

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This paper shows the dynamic relationships which the components of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) with direct and indirect taxes. We use a structural vector autoregressive model (SVAR) to examine the effect (temporary or permanent) of taxes on domestic production in Ecuador. The calibration of model was done based on research Gachet et al. (2010). This research is one of the first to incorporate restrictions in empirical VARs Ecuador. The main results are: i) the taxes have a temporary effect on the Ecuadorian economy. ii) the increase in indirect taxes have a negative effect on GDP, imports and exports. iii) a positive shock of direct taxes only have a positive effect on exports.

Keywords: Política Fiscal; PIB; SVAR; largo plazo; Ecuador Fiscal Policy; GDP; SVAR; long-term; Ecuador (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E20 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010-04
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https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/32005/1/MPRA_paper_32005.pdf original version (application/pdf)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/33727/4/MPRA_paper_33727.pdf revised version (application/pdf)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/33762/1/MPRA_paper_33762.pdf revised version (application/pdf)

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