The Definition, Dating and Duration of Cycles

Don Harding

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: The ultimate objective of this paper is to discuss the duration of business cycles and the related issue of the probability of recession. To reach that objective it is necessary to first agree on a definition of business cycles. It is also necessary to agree on how to define the key features of business cycles and to agree on the rules for identifying and dating these key features. Although not strictly necessary for this paper, it is also helpful to discuss why we seek to identify and date key features of the business cycles.

Keywords: Business cycle; recession; business cycle dating; probability of recession (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E3 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1997-09
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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