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Forecasting seasonality in prices of potatoes and onions: challenge between geostatistical models, neuro fuzzy approach and Winter method

Arshia Amiri, Mohamad Bakhshoodeh and Bahaeddin Najafi

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This paper, we studied the ability of geostatistical models (ordinary kriging (OK) and Inverse distance weighting (IDW)), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and Winter method for prediction of seasonality in prices of potatoes and onions in Iran over the seasonal period 1986_2001. Results show that the best estimators in order are winter method, ANFIS and geostatistical methods. The results indicate that Winter and ANFIS had powerful results for prediction the prices while geostatistical models were not useful in this respect.

Keywords: Price; Geostatistical model; Kiriging; Inverse distance weighting; Winter’s method; Adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system; Potatoes; Onions; Iran (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 Q1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011-10-13
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis, nep-cmp and nep-for
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