Economics at your fingertips  

Approximating correlated defaults

Dale Rosenthal

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Modeling defaults is critical to risk management as well as pricing debt portfolios and portfolio derivatives. In the recent financial crisis, multi-billion-dollar losses resulted from correlated defaults that were improperly modeled. This paper proposes statistical approximations which are more general than those used previously, follow from an intensity-based risk-factor model, and allow consistent parameter esti- mation. The parameters imply an approximating portfolio of independent, identical-credit loans and characterize both average credit quality and default-relative diversification (aka the “diversity score”). Unlike previous approaches, these metrics are derived jointly from theory. The approach addresses weaknesses in the typical diversity score-based methods by allowing for fatter tails as well as loans differing in size and credit quality. The approximations may also be used to model complete portfolio default and help set capital adequacy requirements. An example shows how to estimate the approximating portfolio.

Keywords: default approximating portfolio; diversity score; gamma Edgeworth expansion (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C16 G12 G13 G33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008, Revised 2012-02-15
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link) original version (application/pdf) revised version (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Joachim Winter ().

Page updated 2023-11-11
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:36788