中国产出缺口的估计(1985-2009)及两种评估方法的比较

China's output gap estimates (1985-2009) and comparison of the two estimation methods

Fei Liu

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: In this paper, we used the production function method and the Van Norden method to estimate China's output gap (and potential output) from 1985 to 2009 year,and comparise the two methods. The results showed that: (1) the results of different methods are basically consistent with our economic situation. (2) Chinese economic stability enhanced after the emergence of sharp fluctuations, so development of domestic demand is the only way to stabilize the economy. (3) the results estimated by the Van Norden are more sensitive than PF method's . (4) From 2000, the potential output of China has increased.

Keywords: Potential output; output gap; the production function method; Van Norden method (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C00 C80 E01 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011-03-05
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