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Is Radiative Forcing Cointegrated with Temperature? A Further Examination Using a Structural Time Series Approach

Kelvin Balcombe, Iain Fraser () and Abhijit Sharma ()

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This paper re-examines the relationship between radiative forcing and temperatures from a structural time series modelling perspective. The results confirm that cointegration between radiative forcing and temperatures are consis- tent with the data. However, we produce results for which the cointegration between forcing and temperature data finds less support than previously. A Bayesian approach is used to obtain estimates that better represents the uncertainty regarding this relationship. We show that while a cointegrating relationship represents an acceptable characterisation of the relationship between these variables, another equally acceptable model exists in which there is no cointegration, and the relationship between forcing and temperature is insignificant.

Keywords: Radiative forcing; cointegration; structural time series (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q5 Q53 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012-05
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:39111