Evaluating the forecasting performance of linear and nonlinear monetary policy rules for South Africa

Ndahiriwe Kasai and Ruthira Naraidoo

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This paper compares forecast performance of linear and nonlinear monetary policy rules using South African data. Recursive forecasts values are computed for 1- to 12-steps ahead for the out-of-sample period 2006:01 to 2010:12. For the nonlinear models we use bootstrap method for multi-step ahead forecasts as opposed to point forecasts approach used for linear models. The aim of the paper is to evaluate the performance of three competing models in an out-of-sample forecasting exercise. Overall ranking reveals the superiority of the nonlinear model that distinguishes between downward and upward movements in the business cycles in closely matching the historical record. As such, forecasting performance tests reveal that the South African Reserve bank pays particular attention to business cycles movements when setting its policy rate.

Keywords: Monetary policy rules; forecast evaluation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C53 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011-06
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/40699/1/MPRA_paper_40699.pdf original version (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:40699

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Joachim Winter ().