Using Monte Carlo simulation to calculate match importance: the case of English Premier League

Jiří Lahvička

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This paper presents a new method of calculating match importance (a common variable in sports attendance demand studies) using Monte Carlo simulation. Using betting odds and actual results of 12 seasons of English Premier League, it is shown that the presented method is based on realistic predictions of match results and season outcomes. The Monte Carlo method provides results closest to Jennett’s approach; however, it does not require ex-post information and can be used for any type of season outcome.

Keywords: sports attendance; match importance; seasonal uncertainty; Monte Carlo (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 D12 L83 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012-09-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cmp and nep-spo
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