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Determinants of Exports in Pakistan: An Econometric Analysis (1970-2006)

Naeem ur rehman Khattak () and Anwar Hussain

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: The present study has been conducted in the year 2008 to assess the determinants of exports in Pakistan during 1970-2006 using econometric techniques. Time series data ranging from 1970 to 2006 on total exports, primary commodities exports, semi-manufactures and exports of manufactured goods has been taken from Economic Survey of Pakistan (Statistical Supplement, 2006-07). Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test has been used for checking the stationarity of the data. Furthermore, the Johenson Co-integration test (likelihood ratio statistic) has been used to detect the long-term relationship among the series. The method of ordinary least square has been used to assess the determinants of exports in Pakistan. The results indicate that 1% increase in the exports of primary commodities brings 0.97% increase in total exports in Pakistan. Similarly, 1% increase in the exports of semi-manufactures leads to increase total exports by 0.99%. On similar pattern, 1% increase in the exports of manufactured goods leads to increase total exports by 1%. The coefficients of all the explanatory variables are statistically significant at both 5% and 1% level of significance. It is recommended to increase the exports of primary goods, semi-manufactures and manufactured goods so as make balance of trade favorable.

Keywords: Determinants; exports; econometric; analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: A10 B22 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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Published in Journal of Huminities and Social Sciences 1.18(2010): pp. 102-108

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