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A Disaggregate Model and Second Round Effects for the CPI Inflation in Costa Rica

Jorge Leon

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This paper estimates a medium-term forecasting model for the headline inflation of Costa Rica, utilizing disaggregate data from the components of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The period used for the estimation is characterize by a process of reduction of inflation and stabilized around the Central Bank's inflation target. The result show that the use of disaggregate data is at least as good as the aggregate data in forecast accuracy. The disaggregate model allows to differentiate the inertia and the Second-Round effects present on the inflation.

Keywords: Inflation; Forecast; CPI; PPI; Second Round Effect. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C51 C53 E31 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012, Revised 2012
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