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Cycles of violence, riots, and terrorist attacks index for the State of California

Gustavo Gomez-Sorzano

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: I apply the Beveridge-Nelson business cycle decomposition method to the time series of per capita murder in the State of California. (1933-2005). Separating out “permanent” from “cyclical” murder, I hypothesize that the cyclical part coincides with documented waves of organized crime, internal tensions, breakdowns in social order as riots, crime legislation, social, and political unrest, and recently with the periodic terrorist attacks to the U.S. The estimated cyclical component of murder, or attacks index found is optimal, and warns that terrorist attacks against the U.S., and riots in California have created estimated turning point dates marked by those tragic events. The index peaked to point out the World Trade Center Bombing in 1993, and 9/11 2001, and for California it amazingly well captured the riots of 1965 and 1992. This paper belongs to the series of papers helping the U.S, and Homeland Security identify the closeness of terrorist attacks through the construction of Attacks indexes across the U.S. Other indexes constructed include the Index for the U.S. http://mpra.ub.uni-uenchen.de/1145/01/MPRA_paper_1145.pdf, New York State http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3776/01/MPRA_paper_3776.pdf, New York City http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4200/01/MPRA_paper_4200.pdf Arizona State http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4360/01/MPRA_paper_4360.pdf Massachusetts State http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4342/01/MPRA_paper_4342.pdf. These indexes must be used as dependent variables in structural models for terrorist attacks, and in models assessing the effects of terrorism over the U.S. economy.

Keywords: A model of cyclical terrorist murder in Colombia; 1950-2004. Forecasts 2005-2019; the econometrics of violence; terrorism; and scenarios for peace in Colombia from 1950 to 2019; scenarios for sustainable peace in Colombia by year 2019; decomposing violence: terrorist murder in the twentieth in the United States; using the Beveridge and Nelson decomposition of economic time series for pointing out the occurrence of terrorist attacks; decomposing violence: terrorist murder and attacks in New York State from 1933 to 2005; terrorist murder; cycles of violence; and terrorist attacks in New York City during the last two centuries (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: K14 O51 D74 N42 C22 K42 H56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007-01-23, Revised 2007-08-19
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-his
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