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Terrorist murder, cycles of violence, and attacks index for the City of Philadelphia during the last two centuries

Gustavo Gomez-Sorzano

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: I apply the Beveridge-Nelson business cycle decomposition method to the reconstructed time series of murder of the City of Philadelphia (1826-2004). Separating out “permanent” from “cyclical” murder, I hypothesize that the cyclical part coincides with documented waves of organized crime, internal tensions, breakdowns in social order, crime legislation, social, and political unrest, and recently with the periodic terrorist attacks in to the United States. The estimated cyclical terrorist murder component warns that terrorist attacks to the U.S, have affected Philadelphia City creating turning point dates marked by those attacks. This paper belongs to the series of papers helping the U.S, and Homeland Security identify the closeness of terrorist attacks, and constructs the attacks index for Philadelphia. Other indices constructed include the Index for the U.S. http://mpra.ub.uni-uenchen.de/1145/01/MPRA_paper_1145.pdf, New York State http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3776/01/MPRA_paper_3776.pdf, New York City http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4200/01/MPRA_paper_4200.pdf, Arizona State http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4360/01/MPRA_paper_4360.pdf, Massachusetts State http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4342/01/MPRA_paper_4342.pdf., California http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4547/01/MPRA_paper_4547.pdf., Washington http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4604/01/MPRA_paper_4604.pdf., Ohio http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4605/01/MPRA_paper_4605.pdf, and Arkansas. http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4606/01/MPRA_paper_4606.pdf. These indices must be used as dependent variables in structural models for terrorist attacks and in models assessing the effects of terrorism over the U.S. economy.

Keywords: A model of cyclical terrorist murder in Colombia; 1950-2004. Forecasts 2005-2019; the econometrics of violence; terrorism; and scenarios for peace in Colombia from 1950 to 2019; scenarios for sustainable peace in Colombia by year 2019; decomposing violence: terrorist murder in the twentieth in the United States; using the Beveridge and Nelson decomposition of economic time series for pointing out the occurrence of terrorist attacks; terrorist murder; cycles of violence; and terrorist attacks in New York City during the last two centuries (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 N42 K42 D74 O51 K14 H56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007-01-29, Revised 2007-09-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-his
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