Régime de change, taux de change réel, flux commerciaux et investissements directs étrangers: le cas du Maroc

Real exchange rate, trade flows and foreign direct investments: the Moroccan case

Jamal Bouoiyour () and Serge Rey

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: We study the behavior of the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) of the dirham against the European currencies (the EU15), over the period 1960–2000. We measure the volatility using standard deviation, and the misalignments as the difference between the actual REER and the equilibrium REER (NATREX model). We show that a rise in the volatility of the dirham reduces the trade flows, i.e. the exports and the imports. The misalignments also affect the trade flows: an overvaluation leads to a reduction in Morocco exports, to an increase in Morocco imports, and globally to a deterioration of the trade balance with the European Union. On the other hand, neither the volatility nor the misalignments have an effect on foreign direct investment in favor of Morocco

Keywords: Real exchange rate; PPP; EMS; unit root; long memory; mean-reverting; structural breaks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C20 F14 F31 F41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005-01
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