Un Test sulle Ipotesi delle Proiezioni a Medio-Lungo Termine della Spesa Farmaceutica

Testing Hypotheses at the basis of Medium-Long Term Projections of Pharmaceutical Expenditure

Nicola Salerno ()

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: We use the same methodology, that Ecofin-Oecd apply for projecting expenditure in the medium-long term, to reconstruct expenditure in the medium-long past. It is possible to compare the effective expenditure with the reconstructed one. The effective expenditure is of course influenced by policy and also by problems and inefficiencies on the market for pharmaceuticals production and retail distribution, while the reconstructed expenditure can be considered net of these influences. If we believe that Ecofin-Oecd methodology is valid, this exercise offers us the possibility to evaluate the difference between the effective expenditure and a reconstructed expenditure that may jet light on the pharmaceutical needs, i.e. the theoretical expenditure that would entirely satisfy population needs in the absence of truncations. Several conclusions can be traced for the policy, and several insights can also be argued about the governance of Italian public pharmaceutical expenditure over the last 20 years. Nicola Carmine Salerno, FFM, 22 October 2013, nicola.salerno@tin.it

Keywords: projections; medium-long term projections; pharma; pharmaceutical; pharmaceuticals; public finance; sustainability; adequacy; welfare; welfare system; Italy; Oecd; Ocse; Ecofin; Awg; Ageing Working Group; Gdp; proiezioni; Ragioneria Generale dello Stato; Spesa Sociale; SSN; sistema sanitari; spesa sanitaria; spesa farmaceutica; copayment; multipillar; multipilastro; pharmacy; pharmacies; distribuzione; drug; drugs; nicola c. salerno; nicola carmine salerno; nc salerno; nicola.salerno@tin.it; scienza delle finanze; structural reform; structural reforms; expenditure profile; expenditure profiles; profili di spesa per età; demografia; invecchiamento; crescita; sviluppo; salute; Ministero della Salute; Ministero del Tesoro; Dipartimento del Tesoro; estimation; reforming process; Europe; International Monetary Fund; Roma; Via San Remo (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D60 H00 H20 H42 H70 H72 H75 H77 I00 I10 I11 I13 I18 I30 J1 J10 J11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013-10-21
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