Behavioural Asymmetries in the G7 Foreign Exchange Market

Emmanuel Mamatzakis and G Christodoulakis

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This paper examines the exchange rate disconnect puzzle of Obstfeld and Rogoff, (2000) from a behavioural perspective. It provides evidence on the existence of substantial asymmetries in the underlying loss preferences for the difference between the spot and forward nominal exchange rates between the G7 countries for one-week and four-week forecast horizons. We further perform forecast breakdown tests in forward markets during the Greek and the Portuguese sovereign debt crisis, and then re-estimate the loss preferences showing a mean-reverting transition from optimism to pessimism and vice versa. Finally, we attribute the evolution of preferences to economic fundamentals and risk indexes and find that together with significant endogenous dynamics, variables such as growth and deficit differentials, interest rate and legal risk assert some significant impact on asymmetry. This new set of information suggests that the puzzle could have its roots on an underlying asymmetric loss function that reflects variability in preferences over exchange rate movements due to a variety of episodes in economic fundamentals.

Keywords: Spot-forward exchange rates; Asymmetric preferences; Forecast breakdown; GMM estimation. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F31 F47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013-11-19
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for and nep-mon
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Journal Article: Behavioural asymmetries in the G7 foreign exchange market (2013)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:51615

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