Time series properties of ARCH processes with persistent covariates
Heejoon Han and
Joon Park
MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany
Abstract:
We consider ARCH processes with persistent covariates and provide asymptotic theories that explain how such covariates affect various characteristics of volatility. Specifically, we propose and study a volatility model, named ARCH-NNH model, that is an ARCH(1) process with a nonlinear function of a persistent, integrated or nearly integrated, explanatory variable. Statistical properties of time series given by this model are investigated for various volatility functions. It is shown that our model generates time series that have two prominent characteristics: high degree of volatility persistence and leptokurtosis. Due to persistent covariates, the time series generated by our model has the long memory property in volatility that is commonly observed in high frequency speculative returns. On the other hand, the sample kurtosis of the time series generated by our model either diverges or has a well-defined limiting distribution with support truncated on the left by the kurtosis of the innovation, which successfully explains the empirical finding of leptokurtosis in financial time series. We present two empirical applications of our model. It is shown that the default premium (the yield spread between Baa and Aaa corporate bonds) predicts stock return volatility, and the interest rate differential between two countries accounts for exchange rate return volatility. The forecast evaluation shows that our model generally performs better than GARCH(1,1) and FIGARCH at relatively lower frequencies.
Keywords: ARCH; nonstationarity; nonlinearity; NNH; volatility persistence; leptokurtosis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C50 G12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006-05
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:
Downloads: (external link)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/5199/1/MPRA_paper_5199.pdf original version (application/pdf)
Related works:
Journal Article: Time series properties of ARCH processes with persistent covariates (2008) 
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:5199
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Joachim Winter ().