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The Possible Effects of Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership and Trans-Pacific Partnership on Chinese Economy

Buhara Aslan, Merve Mavuş and Arif Oduncu

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: The failure to advance the multilateral trade negotiations of the World Trade Organization (WTO) was a disruption for the international trading system. Alternatively, many countries have commenced to establish bilateral and regional Free Trade Agreements (FTA). Among those agreements the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) are agreements with members from across the Atlantic and the Pacific respectively. This note focuses on the impacts of these agreements on Chinese economy under three scenarios. The effects of various scenarios on Chinese GDP and export are studied by using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database and a general equilibrium model. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to analytically analyze the economic impacts of the TTIP on Chinese economy. In all of the scenarios the TTIP is realized and China never becomes a member of it. In the first scenario the TPP is not realized. In the second scenario the TPP is realized and China is excluded from it. In the last scenario the TPP is realized and China is included in the initiative. The results suggest that when only TTIP is realized, Chinese economic variables are negatively affected. When both TTIP and TPP are realized and China is excluded, the combined damage in Chinese economy is higher than the damage of TTIP alone. On the other hand, inclusion of China in the TPP affects its economic variables positively despite the negative effects of the TTIP. In other words, positive impacts of participation of China in the TPP compensate for the negative impacts of the TTIP.

Keywords: Free Trade Agreements; Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership; Trans-Pacific Partnership; China. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F13 F15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-int and nep-tra
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Related works:
Journal Article: Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership and Trans-Pacific Partnership: Policy Options of China (2015) Downloads
Working Paper: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership and Trans-Pacific Partnership on Chinese Economy (2015) Downloads
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