¿Puede un índice de sostenibilidad fiscal predecir la ocurrencia de crisis cambiarias? Evidencias para algunos países seleccionados

Can a fiscal sustainability indicator predict the occurrence of currency crises? Evidence for selected countries

Alexis Cruz-Rodriguez

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: The aim of this article is to assess whether a fiscal sustainability indicator (FSI) can be used as an early warning indicator for predicting the probability that a currency crisis occurs. Using the FSI developed by Croce and Juan-Ramón (2003) and two different definitions of currency crisis, a probit model is estimated. The results suggest that the lagged FSI has an explanatory power over currency crises in a selection of countries.

Keywords: Currency crises; foreign exchange; fiscal sustainability; probit model. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E62 F31 F33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014-02-28
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/54103/1/MPRA_paper_54103.pdf original version (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:54103

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Joachim Winter ().