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RIOLOG: Uma avaliação ex-post

RIOLOG: An ex-post evaluation

Sergio Guimarães and João Pedro Azevedo ()

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Este estudo procura avaliar custos e benefícios de um programa que marcou o início de uma reação do Estado do Rio de Janeiro à guerra fiscal entre estados: o RIOLOG. Estima-se o impacto fiscal do programa por meio de duas metodologias distintas: (i) uma simulação da receita não recolhida pelo Estado para as firmas atualmente enquadradas no programa – os resultados indicam uma queda de recolhimento de 71%; (ii) uma análise econométrica, em que se comparam dois grupos de firmas semelhantes cuja única diferença é o enquadramento ou não no programa – o resultado mais importante é que o enquadramento no RIOLOG gera uma queda de receita de 88%, em média, em relação a uma empresa similar (e elegível) não-enquadrada. O estudo não nos permite determinar se as empresas que receberam os incentivos do RIOLOG teriam de fato saído do Estado na ausência do programa. Também são estimados em modelos econométricos os eventuais benefícios do RIOLOG – em termos de emprego, salário e valor adicionado –, os quais parecem pouco significativos. In this paper, we assess costs and benefits of a program which marked the first reaction of the State of Rio de Janeiro to the on-going “fiscal competition” among Brazilian states, namely: the RIOLOG program. We estimate the program’s fiscal impact by means of two distinct methodologies: (i) a simulation of the tax revenues foregone by the State as a result of the program – our results indicate a reduction of 71% of the tax revenues; (ii) an econometric analysis, in which two groups of firms are compared, differing only in their taking part or not in the program – the most important result is that participating in the program reduces the tax revenues on average by about 88% with respect to a similar (and eligible) firm that did not participate. This study does not allow us to find out whether the firms that were granted RIOLOG’s fiscal incentives would indeed have left the State in the absence of the program. Finally, we also estimate with econometric models some possible benefits of RIOLOG – in terms of jobs, wages, and added value –, all of which seem to be insignificant.

Keywords: Brazil; Rio de Janeiro; Tax incentives; ex-post evaluation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: L51 L53 R38 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007-10-06
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