هل تؤثر الأزمة المالية العالمية في الاقتصاد السعودي؟ تلحيل عبر نموذج التقهقر الذاتي البنيوي

Does the International Financial Crisis impact the Saudi Arabia Economy? SVAR Model Analysis

Hassan Ghassan (), Farid B. Taher and Salman AlDehailan

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: The paper aims to exhibit the impacts of the international financial crisis on the real economy of Saudi Arabia through economic and financial channels, which connect the Saudi economy to the world economy. Based on the mechanism of international liquidity and its relationship to the net-exports and GDP, and using database from 1968 to 2009, we estimate SVAR model founded the interpretation of structural shock of the global reserves assets as a shock in the international financial markets, and as a shock in the monetary and financial government policies. The findings indicate that a negative shock of international liquidity i.e. more foreign reserves assets leads in the long-run to real economic growth after its fall back in the short-run. This economic growth could allow increase in net-exports with the probable decrease in the imports. We expect that the simulated negative shocks from the monetary authorities would reduce the saving glut effect in the Saudi economy and transform it to an absorption effect. If the negative shock happening during the last international financial crisis, due to the decrease in the foreign asset prices, has a transitory impact on GDP, it is more expected in the future that will have a permanent impact.

Keywords: International financial crisis; net-exports; international liquidity; Shocks; SVAR; Saudi Arabia. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C5 C51 F3 G15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010-03-18, Revised 2011-11-23
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Published in Islamic Economic Studies (Arabic Edition) 2.17(2011): pp. 1-34

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https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/80606/28/MPRA_paper_80606.pdf revised version (application/pdf)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/65595/1/MPRA_paper_56358.pdf revised version (application/pdf)

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