Probabilistic opinion pooling generalized Part two: The premise-based approach

Franz Dietrich and Christian List

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: How can different individuals' probability functions on a given σ-algebra of events be aggregated into a collective probability function? Classic approaches to this problem often require `event-wise independence': the collective probability for each event should depend only on the individuals' probabilities for that event. In practice, however, some events may be `basic' and others `derivative', so that it makes sense first to aggregate the probabilities for the former and then to let these constrain the probabilities for the latter. We formalize this idea by introducing a `premise-based' approach to probabilistic opinion pooling, and show that, under a variety of assumptions, it leads to linear or neutral opinion pooling on the `premises'.

Keywords: Probabilistic opinion pooling; judgment aggregation; subjective probability; premise-based aggregation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D7 D70 D71 D80 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013-05, Revised 2014-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ore
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Related works:
Journal Article: Probabilistic opinion pooling generalized. Part two: the premise-based approach (2017)
Working Paper: Probabilistic opinion pooling generalized. Part two: the premise-based approach (2017)
Working Paper: Probabilistic opinion pooling generalized. Part two: The premise-based approach (2017)
Working Paper: Probabilistic opinion pooling generalized. Part two: The premise-based approach (2017)
Working Paper: Probabilistic opinion pooling generalized. Part two: The premise-based approach (2017)
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