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Green-to-Grey China: Determinants and Forecasts of its Green Growth

Jing You () and Yongfu Huang ()

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This paper investigates the determinants China’s green growth and its pathways in the future. We use the OECD conceptual framework for green growth to measure green growth rates for 30 provinces over the period 1998-2011. By estimating a spatial dynamic panel model at provincial level, we find that China has experienced green growth, but with slower speed in the sample period. The average green growth rate is forecast to decline first and then fluctuate around zero over the next two decades. There appears to be a conditional convergence in provincial green growth and positive spatial influence across neighboring areas, yielding a cap of the country’s level of green development in the future. Mass innovation financed by the government and green structural reforms achieved at firm level are likely to stimulate green growth, while political shocks in terms of reappointment of provincial officials could retard China’s progress to a green economy.

Keywords: Green growth; spatial dynamic panel model; forecasting; China (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C33 O10 O13 O53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013-12-19, Revised 2014-07-16
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cna, nep-env and nep-tra
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https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/57468/1/MPRA_paper_57468.pdf original version (application/pdf)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/58101/1/MPRA_paper_58101.pdf revised version (application/pdf)

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