Evaluating Economic Warfare: Lessons from Efforts to Suppress the Afghan Opium Trade

Jeffrey Clemens

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: In the mid-2000s, U.S. anti-opium policy intensified with a goal of reducing the resources available to Afghan insurgents. To achieve this objective, I show that opium suppression efforts must accurately distinguish between insurgent and non-insurgent suppliers. The required level of accuracy will be particularly high if demand for opium is inelastic and if the insurgents’ initial market share is large. Empirically, I show that demand for Afghan opium is relatively inelastic, that the market share of Taliban-heavy areas is large, and that enforcement has primarily impacted non-Taliban territory. Consequently, anti-opium efforts have significantly increased the drug-trade resources flowing to the Taliban.

Keywords: National Security; Drug Control Policy; Policy Evaluation; Economics of Crime; Economics of Insurgency (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D78 H00 H50 H56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cwa
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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